This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing Gyges’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
Gyges | training | published before 2020 | 1,141 | 1,303 |
Gyges | validation | published 2020 | 85 | 82 |
Gyges | test | published after 2020 | 73 | 50 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
Gyges | Fantasy Flight Games | 7.4% | 0.8% | 9.13 |
Gyges | ZMan Games | 6.0% | 1.2% | 4.99 |
Gyges | Miniatures Game | 17.8% | 4.0% | 4.40 |
Gyges | Rio Grande Games | 7.1% | 1.6% | 4.34 |
Gyges | Games With Solitaire Rules | 17.1% | 4.5% | 3.77 |
Gyges | Fighting | 23.3% | 6.5% | 3.58 |
Gyges | Asmodee | 8.2% | 2.3% | 3.51 |
Gyges | GMT Games | 4.0% | 1.2% | 3.44 |
Gyges | Science Fiction | 19.0% | 6.9% | 2.75 |
Gyges | Fantasy | 26.4% | 11.0% | 2.39 |
Gyges | The Avalon Hill Game Co | 2.5% | 1.1% | 2.29 |
Gyges | Action Dexterity | 3.9% | 5.3% | 0.75 |
Gyges | Movies TV Radio Theme | 2.9% | 5.1% | 0.57 |
Gyges | Paper And Pencil | 0.9% | 2.4% | 0.36 |
Gyges | Roll Spin And Move | 1.7% | 7.0% | 0.24 |
Gyges | Childrens Game | 1.0% | 8.4% | 0.11 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2017 | 174430 | Gloomhaven | 0.995 | yes |
2 | 2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.992 | no |
3 | 1997 | 42 | Tigris & Euphrates | 0.989 | yes |
4 | 2010 | 73171 | Earth Reborn | 0.987 | yes |
5 | 2017 | 220308 | Gaia Project | 0.987 | no |
6 | 2010 | 62227 | Labyrinth: The War on Terror, 2001 – ? | 0.969 | yes |
7 | 2019 | 269385 | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth | 0.967 | no |
8 | 2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.963 | no |
9 | 2000 | 475 | Taj Mahal | 0.962 | yes |
10 | 2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.960 | yes |
11 | 2008 | 38453 | Space Alert | 0.958 | yes |
12 | 2019 | 253574 | Crusader Kings | 0.953 | no |
13 | 2013 | 146278 | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | 0.949 | no |
14 | 2016 | 167791 | Terraforming Mars | 0.948 | no |
15 | 2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.944 | yes |
16 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.936 | no |
17 | 2016 | 169786 | Scythe | 0.925 | yes |
18 | 1998 | 3 | Samurai | 0.923 | yes |
19 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.923 | yes |
20 | 2013 | 143693 | Glass Road | 0.920 | yes |
21 | 2013 | 133528 | City of Remnants | 0.917 | yes |
22 | 2016 | 205059 | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | 0.911 | yes |
23 | 2017 | 162886 | Spirit Island | 0.911 | yes |
24 | 2007 | 31481 | Galaxy Trucker | 0.910 | yes |
25 | 2012 | 104162 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | 0.906 | yes |
26 | 2007 | 28143 | Race for the Galaxy | 0.893 | yes |
27 | 2004 | 11170 | Heroscape Master Set: Rise of the Valkyrie | 0.890 | yes |
28 | 2017 | 157979 | Tau Ceti: Planetary Crisis | 0.890 | no |
29 | 1995 | 46 | Medici | 0.889 | no |
30 | 2017 | 232918 | Fallout | 0.885 | no |
31 | 2006 | 25417 | BattleLore | 0.885 | yes |
32 | 2014 | 132531 | Roll for the Galaxy | 0.885 | yes |
33 | 2004 | 9446 | Blue Moon | 0.885 | yes |
34 | 2010 | 62222 | Commands & Colors: Napoleonics | 0.884 | yes |
35 | 2019 | 253344 | Cthulhu: Death May Die | 0.880 | yes |
36 | 2011 | 102548 | Dungeon Fighter | 0.875 | yes |
37 | 2012 | 140068 | Galaxy Trucker: Anniversary Edition | 0.873 | yes |
38 | 2016 | 224483 | Exceed Fighting System | 0.872 | no |
39 | 2012 | 111341 | The Great Zimbabwe | 0.871 | no |
40 | 2011 | 42776 | Gears of War: The Board Game | 0.868 | yes |
41 | 2018 | 255692 | New Frontiers | 0.868 | yes |
42 | 1999 | 204 | Stephenson's Rocket | 0.864 | yes |
43 | 2010 | 54361 | Heroscape Master Set: Battle for the Underdark | 0.863 | yes |
44 | 2010 | 73439 | Troyes | 0.858 | yes |
45 | 2013 | 146439 | BattleLore: Second Edition | 0.858 | yes |
46 | 2015 | 175878 | 504 | 0.850 | yes |
47 | 1998 | 503 | Through the Desert | 0.849 | yes |
48 | 2003 | 5404 | Amun-Re | 0.848 | no |
49 | 2012 | 120677 | Terra Mystica | 0.847 | yes |
50 | 2014 | 164153 | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | 0.847 | yes |
51 | 2008 | 37046 | Ghost Stories | 0.846 | yes |
52 | 2016 | 152172 | Nova Aetas | 0.841 | no |
53 | 2008 | 38707 | Bushido: Der Weg des Kriegers | 0.839 | yes |
54 | 2001 | 1345 | Genoa | 0.838 | yes |
55 | 2002 | 8095 | Prophecy | 0.835 | yes |
56 | 2018 | 247763 | Underwater Cities | 0.835 | no |
57 | 2012 | 104710 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | 0.833 | yes |
58 | 2016 | 205317 | DOOM: The Board Game | 0.829 | no |
59 | 2016 | 205716 | New Angeles | 0.828 | yes |
60 | 2017 | 192135 | Too Many Bones | 0.824 | yes |
61 | 2017 | 197831 | Dark Souls: The Board Game | 0.823 | no |
62 | 2009 | 45315 | Dungeon Lords | 0.822 | yes |
63 | 1997 | 105 | Colossal Arena | 0.822 | yes |
64 | 2010 | 77130 | Sid Meier's Civilization: The Board Game | 0.822 | yes |
65 | 2019 | 264220 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | 0.822 | yes |
66 | 2018 | 221155 | Donning the Purple | 0.821 | yes |
67 | 2007 | 22827 | StarCraft: The Board Game | 0.820 | yes |
68 | 2019 | 285984 | Last Bastion | 0.818 | yes |
69 | 2011 | 72125 | Eclipse | 0.817 | yes |
70 | 2005 | 12493 | Twilight Imperium: Third Edition | 0.816 | yes |
71 | 2016 | 192457 | Cry Havoc | 0.811 | yes |
72 | 2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.811 | yes |
73 | 2001 | 4388 | Rome: Imperium, Circus Maximus, Hannibal vs Rome | 0.809 | yes |
74 | 2006 | 21882 | Blue Moon City | 0.808 | yes |
75 | 2008 | 37111 | Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game | 0.807 | no |
76 | 2014 | 147154 | Blue Moon Legends | 0.803 | yes |
77 | 2004 | 10630 | Memoir '44 | 0.801 | yes |
78 | 2015 | 170216 | Blood Rage | 0.800 | yes |
79 | 2017 | 193728 | Pendragon: The Fall of Roman Britain | 0.800 | no |
80 | 2018 | 313010 | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | 0.796 | no |
81 | 2015 | 175155 | Forbidden Stars | 0.790 | yes |
82 | 2014 | 146886 | La Granja | 0.790 | no |
83 | 2012 | 123096 | Space Cadets | 0.788 | yes |
84 | 2012 | 105551 | Archipelago | 0.784 | yes |
85 | 2018 | 167355 | Nemesis | 0.782 | no |
86 | 2019 | 169427 | Middara: Unintentional Malum – Act 1 | 0.782 | yes |
87 | 2018 | 231581 | AuZtralia | 0.780 | no |
88 | 2017 | 195560 | Wasteland Express Delivery Service | 0.778 | no |
89 | 2000 | 883 | Ivanhoe | 0.777 | no |
90 | 2018 | 207729 | The Edge: Dawnfall | 0.776 | no |
91 | 2007 | 27976 | Heroscape Master Set: Swarm of the Marro | 0.776 | yes |
92 | 2019 | 239942 | Black Rose Wars | 0.774 | yes |
93 | 2017 | 230889 | Aristeia! | 0.773 | yes |
94 | 2006 | 21241 | Neuroshima Hex! 3.0 | 0.772 | yes |
95 | 2004 | 10908 | Minotaur Lords | 0.769 | yes |
96 | 2016 | 190400 | Aventuria: Adventure Card Game | 0.768 | no |
97 | 2009 | 35634 | Samurai: The Card Game | 0.767 | no |
98 | 2019 | 266507 | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated | 0.764 | no |
99 | 2008 | 39463 | Cosmic Encounter | 0.759 | yes |
100 | 1979 | 121 | Dune | 0.759 | yes |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.88 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.79 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think Gyges is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.992 | no |
2017 | 220308 | Gaia Project | 0.987 | no |
2019 | 269385 | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth | 0.967 | no |
2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.963 | no |
2019 | 253574 | Crusader Kings | 0.953 | no |
What games does the model think Gyges is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
-3000 | 2397 | Backgammon | 0.004 | yes |
2010 | 88957 | Avatar: The Board Game | 0.004 | yes |
2017 | 209344 | Rewordable | 0.004 | yes |
1998 | 9668 | MooT | 0.005 | yes |
2006 | 168839 | Die Kutschfahrt zur Teufelsburg | 0.005 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | Roll for the Galaxy | 504 | Star Wars: Rebellion | Gloomhaven | Rising Sun | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth |
2 | Galaxy Trucker: Anniversary Edition | Glass Road | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | Blood Rage | Terraforming Mars | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | New Frontiers | Crusader Kings |
3 | The Great Zimbabwe | City of Remnants | Blue Moon Legends | Forbidden Stars | Scythe | Gaia Project | Underwater Cities | Aftermath |
4 | Terra Mystica | BattleLore: Second Edition | La Granja | Magic: The Gathering – Arena of the Planeswalkers | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Spirit Island | Donning the Purple | Cthulhu: Death May Die |
5 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | Impulse | Imperial Settlers | Yashima: Legend of the Kami Masters | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | Tau Ceti: Planetary Crisis | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon |
6 | Space Cadets | Patchistory | Hyperborea | Space Cadets: Away Missions | Exceed Fighting System | Fallout | Nemesis | Last Bastion |
7 | Archipelago | Concordia | Age of War | Drakon (Fourth Edition) | Nova Aetas | Too Many Bones | AuZtralia | Tapestry |
8 | Il Vecchio | BattleCON: Devastation of Indines | Orléans | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | DOOM: The Board Game | Dark Souls: The Board Game | The Edge: Dawnfall | Middara: Unintentional Malum – Act 1 |
9 | Pax Porfiriana | A Study in Emerald | Three Kingdoms Redux | Zombicide: Black Plague | New Angeles | Pendragon: The Fall of Roman Britain | Renegade | Black Rose Wars |
10 | Exodus: Proxima Centauri | Rococo | Legendary Encounters: An Alien Deck Building Game | Super Dungeon Explore: Forgotten King | Cry Havoc | Wasteland Express Delivery Service | Lords of Hellas | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated |
11 | Zombicide | Cuba Libre | Fields of Arle | Specter Ops | Aventuria: Adventure Card Game | Aristeia! | Neon Gods | Rurik: Dawn of Kiev |
12 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | Tomorrow | Thunderstone Advance: Worlds Collide | Through the Ages: A New Story of Civilization | Magic: The Gathering – Arena of the Planeswalkers: Shadows over Innistrad | Dragonfire | Dungeon Alliance | Unmatched Game System |
13 | Rex: Final Days of an Empire | Thunderstone Advance: Numenera | Galaxy Defenders | XCOM: The Board Game | Aeon's End | Here I Stand: 500th Anniversary Edition | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | Western Empires |
14 | Mice and Mystics | Yggdrasil (Second Edition with Asgard Expansion) | Fire in the Lake | Mombasa | Falling Sky: The Gallic Revolt Against Caesar | A Handful of Stars | Concordia Venus | Bios: Origins (Second Edition) |
15 | Andean Abyss | Room 25 | Akrotiri | Pandemic Legacy: Season 1 | Dust 1947 | This War of Mine: The Board Game | Book of Dragons | Hellenica: Story of Greece |
16 | Virgin Queen | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | Shadows of Brimstone: City of the Ancients | Churchill | Hit Z Road | Massive Darkness | Zombicide: Green Horde | Era: Medieval Age |
17 | Escape: The Curse of the Temple | Dark Darker Darkest | Antike II | Warhammer Quest: The Adventure Card Game | Mechs vs. Minions | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | Heroes of Terrinoth | Agents of Mayhem: Pride of Babylon |
18 | Pixel Tactics | Dungeon Twister: The Card Game | Arcadia Quest | Dungeons & Dragons: Temple of Elemental Evil Board Game | Czas Zaorać Socjalizm | Immortals | Darklight: Memento Mori | Dune |
19 | Clash of Cultures | Zombicide Season 2: Prison Outbreak | Five Tribes | BATTALIA: The Creation | Perdition's Mouth: Abyssal Rift | Manoeuvre: Distant Lands | Star Realms: Frontiers | Zombicide: Invader |
20 | 1989: Dawn of Freedom | Level 7 [Omega Protocol] | AquaSphere | Metal Adventures | Black Orchestra | 878 Vikings: Invasions of England | Pax Emancipation | The Quest for El Dorado: The Golden Temples |
21 | Thunderstone Advance: Towers of Ruin | Prosperity | DungeonQuest Revised Edition | Runebound (Third Edition) | Dead of Winter: The Long Night | Sword & Sorcery | War for Indagar | Aeon's End: Legacy |
22 | Kemet | Zpocalypse | The Captain Is Dead | Stellar Conflict | Star Trek: Frontiers | Path of Light and Shadow | GKR: Heavy Hitters | Ancient Civilizations of the Inner Sea |
23 | Smash Up | Burning Suns | New Dawn | A Study in Emerald (Second Edition) | Virus | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | Deep Madness | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume One |
24 | Copycat | BioShock Infinite: The Siege of Columbia | Istanbul | El Grande Big Box | The Others | Battle for Rokugan | Bag of Dungeon: A Fantasy Adventure Game | Armata Strigoi |
25 | Android: Netrunner | Lost Legends | The Battle at Kemble's Cascade | Krosmaster: Quest | Flamme Rouge | The Smog Riders: Dimensions of Madness | Gen7: A Crossroads Game | Runaljod: The sound of the runes |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
Gyges | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.757 |
Gyges | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.722 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.973 | yes |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.811 | no |
2020 | 246900 | Eclipse: Second Dawn for the Galaxy | 0.780 | yes |
2020 | 281655 | High Frontier 4 All | 0.770 | yes |
2020 | 253506 | Versailles 1919 | 0.769 | yes |
2020 | 256999 | Project: ELITE | 0.715 | yes |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.715 | no |
2020 | 294484 | Unmatched: Cobble & Fog | 0.684 | yes |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.680 | no |
2020 | 315060 | Unmatched: Buffy the Vampire Slayer | 0.675 | no |
2020 | 280794 | Etherfields | 0.669 | no |
2020 | 314040 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 0 | 0.662 | no |
2020 | 317985 | Beyond the Sun | 0.653 | yes |
2020 | 325635 | Unmatched: Little Red Riding Hood vs. Beowulf | 0.628 | no |
2020 | 282922 | Windward | 0.602 | no |
2020 | 326767 | Infinity N4: Core Rules | 0.585 | no |
2020 | 248125 | Monumental | 0.569 | yes |
2020 | 207486 | Infinities: Defiance of Fate | 0.568 | no |
2020 | 284777 | Unmatched: Jurassic Park – InGen vs Raptors | 0.567 | no |
2020 | 284639 | Gatefall | 0.559 | yes |
2020 | 295604 | Rangers of Shadow Deep: Deluxe Edition | 0.556 | no |
2020 | 259061 | Skytear | 0.538 | yes |
2020 | 273703 | Altar Quest | 0.525 | yes |
2020 | 262274 | D6: Dungeons, Dudes, Dames, Danger, Dice and Dragons! | 0.523 | no |
2020 | 245224 | La Belle Époque | 0.514 | no |
2020 | 302465 | Obsidia | 0.509 | no |
2020 | 236861 | Full Moon Jacket | 0.503 | no |
2020 | 249275 | The Silver River | 0.492 | no |
2020 | 233262 | Tidal Blades: Heroes of the Reef | 0.488 | no |
2020 | 278292 | Anachrony: Infinity Box | 0.473 | yes |
2020 | 256940 | Krosmaster: Blast | 0.470 | no |
2020 | 295486 | My City | 0.458 | yes |
2020 | 298572 | Cosmic Encounter Duel | 0.456 | yes |
2020 | 299317 | Aeon's End: Outcasts | 0.452 | no |
2020 | 271055 | Dwellings of Eldervale | 0.451 | no |
2020 | 246911 | Streets Of Steel: Kickin' Asphalt | 0.445 | no |
2020 | 294788 | Conqueror: Final Conquest | 0.435 | no |
2020 | 281257 | Aeolis | 0.429 | no |
2020 | 318472 | Blood Bowl: Second Season Edition | 0.413 | no |
2020 | 177014 | Giga-Robo! | 0.406 | no |
2020 | 306481 | Tawantinsuyu: The Inca Empire | 0.398 | no |
2020 | 309630 | Small World of Warcraft | 0.395 | no |
2020 | 318983 | Faiyum | 0.390 | no |
2020 | 295905 | Cosmic Frog | 0.386 | yes |
2020 | 300322 | Hallertau | 0.371 | yes |
2020 | 257145 | Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Adventures: City Fall | 0.362 | no |
2020 | 299252 | Here to Slay | 0.360 | no |
2020 | 316412 | The LOOP | 0.357 | no |
2020 | 206480 | Imperial Struggle | 0.353 | yes |
2020 | 228602 | Valor & Villainy: Minions of Mordak | 0.350 | no |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.959 | no |
2 | 2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.948 | no |
3 | 2022 | 322524 | Bardsung | 0.928 | no |
4 | 2022 | 317321 | Darkest Dungeon: The Board Game | 0.825 | no |
5 | 2022 | 273814 | Deliverance | 0.821 | no |
6 | 2021 | 322708 | Descent: Legends of the Dark | 0.803 | yes |
7 | 2021 | 260524 | Beyond Humanity: Colonies | 0.790 | no |
8 | 2021 | 262201 | Sword & Sorcery: Ancient Chronicles | 0.776 | no |
9 | 2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.768 | no |
10 | 2021 | 333539 | The Siege of Runedar | 0.767 | no |
11 | 2022 | 254127 | Europa Universalis: The Price of Power | 0.751 | no |
12 | 2021 | 259066 | Commands & Colors: Samurai Battles | 0.748 | yes |
13 | 2022 | 315610 | Massive Darkness 2: Hellscape | 0.723 | no |
14 | 2021 | 332420 | Nexum Galaxy | 0.712 | no |
15 | 2022 | 299106 | Fractal: Beyond the Void | 0.709 | no |
16 | 2021 | 338980 | Eastern Empires | 0.705 | no |
17 | 2023 | 274471 | Malhya: Lands of Legends | 0.704 | no |
18 | 2021 | 285967 | Ankh: Gods of Egypt | 0.702 | yes |
19 | 2022 | 282775 | The Warp | 0.693 | no |
20 | 2022 | 251661 | Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood | 0.674 | no |
21 | 2021 | 343905 | Boonlake | 0.669 | no |
22 | 2022 | 335764 | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume Two | 0.661 | no |
23 | 2022 | 275802 | Carnival Zombie: 2nd Edition | 0.657 | no |
24 | 2021 | 266448 | Imperium: The Contention | 0.638 | yes |
25 | 2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.636 | no |
26 | 2021 | 260934 | Ignite | 0.636 | no |
27 | 2021 | 291572 | Oath: Chronicles of Empire and Exile | 0.618 | yes |
28 | 2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.615 | no |
29 | 2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.612 | no |
30 | 2021 | 332075 | Warhammer Quest: Cursed City | 0.592 | no |
31 | 2022 | 341945 | La Granja: Deluxe Master Set | 0.587 | no |
32 | 2022 | 331398 | Mythic Battles: Ragnarök | 0.587 | no |
33 | 2023 | 315727 | Last Light | 0.584 | no |
34 | 2022 | 330950 | Age of Galaxy | 0.578 | no |
35 | 2022 | 316915 | U.S.S. Freedom | 0.574 | no |
36 | 2023 | 349793 | Age of Rome | 0.570 | no |
37 | 2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.561 | no |
38 | 2021 | 283387 | Rocketmen | 0.550 | no |
39 | 2021 | 336794 | Galaxy Trucker | 0.548 | yes |
40 | 2021 | 306202 | Philosophia: Floating World | 0.543 | no |
41 | 2022 | 337098 | Lords of Vaala: Dragonbond | 0.542 | no |
42 | 2021 | 286751 | Zombicide: 2nd Edition | 0.541 | no |
43 | 2022 | 338067 | 6: Siege – The Board Game | 0.533 | no |
44 | 2021 | 273330 | Bloodborne: The Board Game | 0.523 | yes |
45 | 2021 | 249277 | Brazil: Imperial | 0.516 | no |
46 | 2021 | 280984 | Ruins: Death Binder | 0.514 | no |
47 | 2021 | 318560 | Witchstone | 0.513 | no |
48 | 2021 | 295535 | Dark Ages: Heritage of Charlemagne | 0.509 | yes |
49 | 2021 | 304985 | Dark Ages: Holy Roman Empire | 0.509 | no |
50 | 2022 | 252315 | The Everrain | 0.507 | no |
51 | 2021 | 308566 | Nova Lux | 0.507 | no |
52 | 2022 | 311823 | Nova Aetas Renaissance | 0.497 | no |
53 | 2022 | 326933 | Unmatched: Redemption Row | 0.490 | no |
54 | 2022 | 326934 | Unmatched: Hell's Kitchen | 0.490 | no |
55 | 2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.484 | no |
56 | 2021 | 310100 | Nemesis: Lockdown | 0.483 | no |
57 | 2023 | 337627 | Voidfall | 0.482 | no |
58 | 2022 | 305462 | The Age of Atlantis | 0.473 | no |
59 | 2022 | 256680 | Return to Dark Tower | 0.472 | no |
60 | 2021 | 302413 | Steamwatchers | 0.471 | no |
61 | 2021 | 337397 | Warhammer Underworlds: Two-Player Starter Set | 0.469 | no |
62 | 2021 | 295785 | Euthia: Torment of Resurrection | 0.468 | no |
63 | 2021 | 291828 | Car Wars (Sixth Edition) | 0.466 | no |
64 | 2021 | 262941 | Dominant Species: Marine | 0.457 | yes |
65 | 2021 | 331212 | Aeon's End: Legacy of Gravehold | 0.445 | no |
66 | 2022 | 292509 | The Shadow Planet: The Board Game | 0.443 | no |
67 | 2022 | 288080 | Dice Realms | 0.443 | no |
68 | 2021 | 260789 | Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood of Venice | 0.435 | no |
69 | 2021 | 336195 | League of Dungeoneers | 0.433 | no |
70 | 2022 | 266064 | Trudvang Legends | 0.428 | no |
71 | 2022 | 313821 | Where Humans Don't Belong | 0.426 | no |
72 | 2021 | 193428 | Street Fighter: The Miniatures Game | 0.417 | yes |
73 | 2022 | 275284 | Arkeis | 0.417 | no |
74 | 2022 | 298512 | Soulgivers | 0.414 | no |
75 | 2021 | 239189 | Chronicle X | 0.408 | yes |
76 | 2021 | 330608 | Cryo | 0.404 | yes |
77 | 2021 | 329450 | Equinox | 0.403 | no |
78 | 2022 | 319807 | Shogun no Katana | 0.398 | no |
79 | 2021 | 331549 | MiniQuest Adventures | 0.393 | no |
80 | 2021 | 277080 | Titans | 0.393 | no |
81 | 2022 | 242994 | Onimaru | 0.389 | no |
82 | 2022 | 283137 | Human Punishment: The Beginning | 0.385 | no |
83 | 2021 | 281676 | Galactic Era | 0.382 | no |
84 | 2022 | 281647 | Stellaris: Infinite Legacy | 0.378 | no |
85 | 2021 | 328871 | Terraforming Mars: Ares Expedition | 0.375 | yes |
86 | 2021 | 344697 | Warhammer 40,000: Kill Team | 0.370 | no |
87 | 2021 | 287711 | The Path of the Adventurers | 0.367 | no |
88 | 2022 | 254632 | Hyperspace | 0.367 | no |
89 | 2021 | 332800 | Summoner Wars (Second Edition) | 0.353 | no |
90 | 2022 | 303731 | Primal: The Awakening | 0.351 | no |
91 | 2021 | 277565 | Ashes to Ashes | 0.348 | no |
92 | 2021 | 324657 | Core Space: First Born | 0.347 | no |
93 | 2021 | 303954 | Pax Viking | 0.345 | yes |
94 | 2021 | 332386 | Brew | 0.344 | no |
95 | 2022 | 324894 | Free Radicals | 0.343 | no |
96 | 2021 | 224793 | Gascony's Legacy | 0.335 | no |
97 | 2021 | 299450 | Tsukuyumi: Full Moon Down (Second Edition) | 0.334 | yes |
98 | 2022 | 194517 | Super Fantasy Brawl | 0.327 | no |
99 | 2022 | 266018 | Trinidad | 0.324 | no |
100 | 2021 | 319263 | One Card Dungeon | 0.322 | no |